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“In 1581, Galileo, while attending services at the Cathedral of Pisa,
observed a chandelier swinging back and forth. Energized by shifting
air currents, the chandelier moved in a variety of arcs and amplitudes.
Thus was born the concept of the pendulum which Galileo used as a time
measurement device in his later experiments” The pendulum formula is a belief that, in any investment area, the herd
instincts of greed and fear are prevalent, that virtually all extremes
return to a natural equilibrium point or gravity center, and trends and
cycles of these tendencies can be identified and measured.
Volatility is considered the most accurate measure of risk and, by
extension, of return, its flip side. The higher the volatility, the
higher the risk - and the reward. That volatility increases in the
transition from bull to bear markets seems to support this pet theory.
But how to account for surging volatility in plummeting bourses? At the
depths of the bear phase, volatility and risk increase while returns
evaporate - even taking short-selling into account. "The Economist" has recently proposed yet another dimension of risk:
In American novels, well into the 1950's, one finds protagonists using
the future stream of dividends emanating from their share holdings to
send their kids to college or as collateral. Yet, dividends seemed to
have gone the way of the Hula-Hoop. Few companies distribute erratic
and ever-declining dividends. The vast majority don't bother. The
unfavorable tax treatment of distributed profits may have been the
cause.
A correction is a beautiful thing, simply the flip side of a rally, big
or small. Theoretically, even technically I'm told, corrections adjust
equity prices to their actual value or “support levels”. In reality,
it’s much easier than that. Prices go down because of speculator
reactions to expectations of news, speculator reactions to actual news,
and investor profit taking. The two former "becauses" are more potent
than ever before because there is more "self directed" money out there
than ever before. And therein lies the core of correctional beauty!
Mutual Fund unit holders rarely take profits but often take losses.
Opportunities abound!
Claud Cockburn, writing for the "Times of London" from New-York,
described the irrational exuberance that gripped the nation just prior
to the Great Depression. As Europe wallowed in post-war malaise,
America seemed to have discovered a new economy, the secret of
uninterrupted growth and prosperity, the fount of transforming
technology: "The atmosphere of the great boom was savagely exciting, but there were
times when a person with my European background felt alarmingly lonely.
He would have liked to believe, as these people believed, in the
eternal upswing of the big bull market or else to meet just one person
with whom he might discuss some general doubts without being regarded
as an imbecile or a person of deliberately evil intent - some kind of
anarchist, perhaps."
We've all heard about the investor how bragged about his 100% or 1000%
return on a stock or about the guy who made it rich by investing in
small caps, undiscovered stocks that made it big. In theory, it seems
to be too easy. Invest in a couple of penny stocks, then sell them when
they move up. Unfortunately, it is too easy. Too easy to lose money
unless you know what to look for.
Picking good stocks is only the first step to become a consistently
profitable trader. Those of you that track the performances of stock
picks I post on http://www.cisiova.com/analysis.asp know that it is
impossible to determine if a stock is good without a good exiting
strategy. And for most traders, exit strategy is the hardest part. Many
people say that to trade profitably you need to develop the right
mentality. Unfortunately, such winning mentality can only be developed
through experience. However, there is a short cut to get through the
learning curve without throwing thousands of dollars in the process.
This short cut is playing POKER.
A copper mining enterprise Stora Kopparberg first introduced the system
of stock in the 13th century. The financial backers and owners felt the
need to raise money for investment in the new projects of the same
company so they started the method of stock and shares. It was also
required in order to ward off the threat to the ownership rights if the
company was sold, which would mean complete loss of control.
Why should the rich guys have all the fun? The small investor can seek out huge returns too...if they know how. Technical analysis that uses statistics for forecasting price
fluctuations is one approach. However, because it is difficult to track
changes in fractions of a penny, there simply isn’t enough data to be
able to analyze. Therefore, you have to keep an ear to the ground when
you trade penny stocks.
Option trading is one method of trading that you can partake in. But,
in order to take advantage of it, you need to find out just what it is
and how it works. This will help you to make decisions that will affect
you throughout your trading experience. Here is some basic information
about option trading to help you.
Learn the techniques needed to become a successful penny stock trader.
Penny stocks represent an excellent investment vehicle for producing
gains, while the risks are equally as high. When you finally decide to
get involved in penny stocks, to go 'Beyond the Brink,' there are some
things you need to know.
After you have found a profitable trading system that you already
back-tested, how can you be sure that this system will produce the same
gains in future? Nobody can predict the future, your system can easily make losses in next years or can be no tradable. There are some tests you must do before accepting a trading system,
these tests swill show the robustness of your system and when passing
these tests, it will be more likely to show gain in future.
There are many steps in calculating the fair value of a company.
However, before we even do that, it is imperative to know how a company
earns its profit. Does it do that by selling to consumers? licensing
its technology to other companies? or extracting natural resources from
the ground?
A lot of discussions have been devoted towards finding fair value of an
investment. The goal of every investors is to find undervalued
investment and sell it when it reaches fair value. Admittedly, this is
the hardest part of investing. So, what is fair value? Fair value is a
point where the price of an investment reflect its earning power.
As turnaround investors, I prefer to invest in companies that are down
but not out. This is important because a lot of times, investors
misunderstood the two. Often times, these two types of companies are
trading near or at their 52 week low. But the similarity ends there.
Earning Season is always volatile to stock prices. Traders jerk in and
out depending on the outcome of the report. For example, Texas
Instrument (TXN) reported that its third quarter earning of 2005 rising
12% year over year. And yet, TXN fell after hour due to weak forecast.
The game now is the expectation game. If the company beats, share price
normally rise. If it doesn't, share price plunge.
Investing can be dangerous yet profitable endeavor. Many people have
been burnt and decide not to ever invest again. This is the primary
fear for investing in anything. They may give you excuse such as 'I
don't have enough money' or 'I don't know where to invest'. But the
number one fear is always the fear of losing money. If a novice
investor knows that he won't lose money, he must have used all means
necessary (such as loan) to buy as much investment opportunity possible.
As 2005 comes to an end, investors celebrate the coming new year and
bring new expectation with it. As investors, we try to sell our losing
investment before the year ends and sell our winning investments after
the new year. This is to receive the benefit of early tax deduction and
deferring our tax liability. Either way, after selling your investment,
you have some spare cash to invest. Therefore, you would need some idea
on where to invest your money.
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